The Swing States

We might forget it over here in Europe, but the US presidential elections will be held on Tuesday, November 3rd 2020 and that is just a few weeks away. We are more concerned at the moment with the pandemic — and I think rightly so — but in the long run, these elections will have a lot of meaning for our position in the world and how diplomatic relations will continue.

We have known for a while that it will be a race between current president Donald Trump (R) and former vice-president Joe Biden (D). The misconception I’ve seen a lot online is that the candidates will focus on each and every state intensively. Of course, they have a nation-wide campaign with millions of dollars being spent in every state, but the focus of the campaign lies with the key states or known as swing states.

What are swing states? We refer to swing states as states that could reasonably be won by either the Democratic or Republican presidential candidate within the presidential election by a swing in votes. These states are not known to be solid or likely to go to one party and therefore are the focus of the campaign for the presidency of the United States.

Every time there is a presidential election, the swing states are identified. In the image below you can see the swing states of the last presidential elections, but in this article, we will focus solely on the 2016 election.

There were 11 swing states and tipping point states according to this graph and they are vital for the presidential election. Why? Because of the electoral votes. Each state has a set number of electoral votes. For example, Florida is a very important state because of the 29 electoral votes it has. The winner of Florida takes another step into securing the presidency in a close race, as we think it will be on November 3rd.

As you can see above, Hilary Clinton won 4 of the 11 swing states and the rest was won by Donald Trump. Trump didn’t only win the majority of the swing states but won the important swing state of Florida, which helped him win the presidency in the end.

Fast-forward to 2020 and it’s evident that it’s going to be a close race again. A landslide victory like Barack Obama had in 2008 will not happen and so it’s necessary for both parties to clinch what they can clinch. The New York Times has published an interactive article on the presidential elections wherein they explain the significance of a certain amount of swing states or battleground states.

These are states who are not solid Democratic or Republican, or likely to vote for them. These are battleground states which can go either way in the next weeks.

Lean Democratic

Michigan: 16 electoral votes. Historically a Democratic state, but Trump narrowly won this state with 0.2 points and it will be close again. Large communities of white suburbs, union members and Black voters.

Margin 2016: +0.2 (R)

Minnesota: 10 electoral votes. With liberal cities, moderate suburbs and populist rural communities, Minnesota has moved swiftly to the right in recent years.

Margin 2016: +1,5 (D)

Nebraska 2nd district:1 electoral vote. An Omaha-based district that typically votes Republican but supported Barack Obama in 2008.

Margin 2016: +2,2 (R)

New Hampshire: 4 electoral votes. One of the country’s most volatile swing states, New Hampshire has large populations of white suburban professionals and more conservative rural voters.

Margin 2016: +0,4 (D)

Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes. Mr. Trump narrowly won Pennsylvania in 2016, which has two huge Democratic cities, big swaths of formerly Republican suburbs and a deeply conservative rural middle.

Margin 2016: +0,7 (R)

Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes. Wisconsin’s politics is shaped by the liberal cities of Milwaukee and Madison, the rural north and west of the state and the affluent white suburbs that lie in between.

Margin 2016: +0,8 (R)

Nevada: 10 electoral votes.

Margin 2016: +2,4 (D)

Arizona: 11 electoral votes. One of the fastest-changing states on the electoral map, Arizona has gone from being a Republican stronghold to a true battleground.

Margin 2016: +3,5 (R)

Lean Republican

Iowa: 6 electoral votes. Iowa is a rural, conservative-leaning state where Republicans have grown more dominant in recent years by consolidating support from working-class whites.

Margin 2016: +9,4 (R)

Ohio: 18 electoral votes. Mr. Trump easily won Ohio in 2016. Democrats need a big turnout from Black voters in the cities to have a chance.

Margin 2016: +8,1 (R)

Texas: 38 electoral votes. Texas has become politically competitive because of its growing Hispanic, Black and Asian-American communities, and because the white suburbs have grown more moderate.

Margin 2016: +9 (R)

Toss-up

Florida: 29 electoral votes. Diverse but conservative-leaning, Florida is almost always close in presidential elections.

Margin 2016: +1,2 (R)

Georgia: 16 electoral votes. A traditionally Republican-leaning state, Georgia has grown more diverse and politically competitive with the growth of Atlanta and its suburbs.

Margin 2016: +5,1 (R)

Maine 2nd district: 1 electoral vote. A conservative, sparsely populated rural district in Maine that voted for Donald J. Trump in 2016 even as Hillary Clinton carried the state.

Margin 2016: +10,3 (R)

North Carolina: 15 electoral votes. North Carolina is split between cities with large communities of moderate professionals, Black voters and college students, and big stretches of the state that are more rural, whiter and conservative.

Margin 2016: +3,7 (R)

Obviously, we can’t really tell what the outcome will be, but the polls can be concluded as follows: all the republican swing states wins are up dor debate again with a lot of states leaning towards the Democratic candidate Biden. As it seems, the Democratic party is closer to the 270 electoral votes needed for the presidency than the Republican party. This means that the Republicans need to have some big wins in the swing states to get a shot at another 4 years in the White House, while the Democratic party needs to consolidate on their lead right now. Exciting times.